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Rwanda is preparing for above-normal rainfall season rainy season after the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) officially announced on 10 February 2026 that the 2026 Itumba rainy season (March-April-May) is expected to bring slightly above-normal rainfall across the country. 🌧️
The forecast has already led to warnings and early action messages from key government institutions, including the Rwanda Emergency Management Authority (MINEMA) and the Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), urging farmers and communities to take steps now to protect crops, property, livestock, and lives.
According to the Meteo Rwanda seasonal report, rainfall amounts are expected to range between 280mm and 800mm nationwide. The increase is linked to global weather changes, including ocean temperature patterns such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the movement of rain-bearing cloud systems over the Equator.
Western districts such as Rubavu, Nyabihu, Rusizi, and parts of Musanze are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall up to 800mm while Eastern districts like Kirehe and Kayonza will receive lower, but still significant, rainfall levels.
🗣️ Meteo Rwanda Speaks
Speaking about the forecast, Meteo Rwanda Director General Aimable Gahigi said the outlook is based on detailed scientific study of international climate systems that influence East Africa.
“Our analysis indicates a high probability of slightly above-normal rainfall during the March to May 2026 season. Key climate drivers such as neutral ENSO conditions, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone are expected to increase moisture over Rwanda,” he said.
While welcoming the benefits of rain for agriculture, he warned that risks remain.
“We urge the public to closely follow seasonal forecasts together with monthly, weekly, and daily weather updates. This information is essential in planning agriculture, preventing disasters, and protecting infrastructure and livelihoods,” Gahigi emphasized.
⚠️ MINEMA Warns of Disaster Risks
Officials from MINEMA said heavier-than-usual rains increase the likelihood of disasters, especially in vulnerable zones.
Speaking at the briefing, NIYOTWAMBAZA Hitimana Christine, Director General of Surveillance and Preparedness at MINEMA, said communities in high-risk areas must take early safety measures before the rains intensify.
“When we receive forecasts showing above-normal rainfall, our concern immediately goes to communities living in flood-prone wetlands and landslide-prone highlands. These rains may cause floods along rivers, soil erosion on steep slopes, and landslides that can destroy homes and infrastructure,” she said.
She emphasized that acting early is critical to saving lives and property.
“We are urging local leaders and residents to strengthen safety and readiness measures now clearing drainage systems, reinforcing weak houses, relocating from high-risk zones where necessary, and following all early warning messages. Acting early saves lives.” She added
RAB Advises Farmers on Farming Practices
Speaking on behalf of the Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB), Dr. Florence Uwamahoro, Acting Director General, said the rainfall forecast presents both opportunity and risk to the agriculture sector.
Dr. Uwamahoro urged farmers to align planting activities with rainfall timing and use improved farming methods.
“This forecast is very important for farmers. Above-normal rainfall can increase productivity if well managed. We advise farmers to plant on time following the forecasted onset dates and to select crops and seeds suitable for high rainfall conditions.” She said
Dr. Florence Uwamahoro also emphasized soil protection and water control.
“Farmers must strengthen erosion control measures, especially in hillside farms. We encourage radical terraces, mulching, drainage channels, and rainwater harvesting. Post-harvest handling is also critical to prevent losses caused by excess moisture.” She said
She added that extension officers are ready to support farmers nationwide.
“RAB extension officers are ready to guide farmers throughout the season so that this rainfall becomes an opportunity for higher yields rather than a source of losses.” She added
Farmers Urged to Join Insurance Scheme
Beyond farming techniques, RAB placed strong emphasis on financial protection.
Dr. Florence Uwamahoro, Acting Director General has called on farmers and livestock keepers to enroll in the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS), known as “Tekana Urishingiwe Muhinzi-Mworozi.”
Dr Uwamahoro explained that insurance is now essential due to climate change risks.
“We are encouraging farmers and livestock keepers to insure their agricultural activities under NAIS. Through the ‘Tekana Urishingiwe Muhinzi-Mworozi’ program, farmers can protect their livelihoods against climate shocks such as floods, droughts, storms, and production losses,” she said.
She added that with heavier rains expected, insurance becomes even more important.
“Heavy rains can boost yields, but they can also destroy crops, wash away soil, or cause livestock diseases. Agricultural insurance ensures that farmers do not fall back into poverty when such risks occur. It gives them confidence to invest more in productivity.” She concluded
Authorities say combining weather information, disaster risk reduction, climate-smart farming, and agricultural insurance will be key to navigating the 2026 rainy season successfully.
As Rwanda prepares for months of intensified rainfall, the joint message from Meteo Rwanda, MINEMA, and RAB is “Act early, farm wisely, and insure agricultural investments to protect livelihoods. ‘’
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